First Post-Monsoon Cyclone in Bay of Bengal Likely This Week, IMD Says ‘Too Soon to Say’

The southern Bay of Bengal region is likely to see the first post-monsoon cyclone developing later this week, which may move north-northwest to hit India’s eastern coast by early next week, as per several international weather models.

At least three models, which include the European ECMWF, the American GFS and the Australian Access weather model, have pointed to the likelihood of a cyclone hitting the Andhra-Odisha coast next week on Monday-Tuesday (October 24-25), the Times of India reported. However, a clearer picture will emerge in the coming days.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) meanwhile, has not yet issued a cyclone alert, with officials saying its too early for that. A wind circulation, which the international models show will intensify into a cyclone, is likely to form over the north Andaman sea around October 18 and move towards south-west Bay of Bengal and intensify into a low-pressure area by October 20, the IMD said.

“IMD’s extended range forecast (for a two-week period) issued on Thursday does point to a probable cyclogenesis developing into a depression after October 21. We aren’t ruling out the possibility of this system intensifying into a cyclone. But it’s too early to say how much it will intensify, as the circulation hasn’t formed yet,” IMD chief, Dr M Mohapatra told TOI on Monday.

While “rumours” of a super-cyclone hitting the east coast around October 18 emerged last week, the IMD dismissed the reports and asserted it had not issued any advisory.

“The IMD indicated the formation of cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal between October 14 and October 20, but all cyclonic circulations do not take the shape of cyclone,” Umashankar Dash, a senior weather scientist, told news agency PTI.

Despite no warning being issued yet, the Odisha government last week asked its officials to prepare for possible cyclones over the next two months. Chief Secretary SC Mohapatra directed officials concerned to take all precautionary measures at the state-level cyclone preparedness meeting last Monday, as per PTI.

Odisha faces severe cyclonic storms in October and November, sometimes even till December 15. This two-and-a-half month is considered the “cyclone season” in the state, he said.

“Odisha usually witnesses the wrath of cyclones during the withdrawal of monsoon in October and November. Odisha’s geographical situation and climate change have also caused cyclones during the summers since 2019,” he added.

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